Friday, April 20, 2007

Interesting Article from the National Journal - suggested by Catalina Ruiz Healey

http://nationaljournal.com/racerankings/wh08/democrats/

White House 2008 Rankings: The Democrats
© National Journal Group Inc.
Tuesday, April 17, 2007

There is no Democratic front-runner. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards all have a plausible claim on the nomination.

The usual metrics are all jumbled. Clinton leads the money race, leads in New Hampshire, and tops the national polls. Obama leads in South Carolina, in media love, and in enthusiasm. Edwards has the tightest message, the best organization in Iowa, and the lead in Iowa.

These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Democratic Party primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Click here for Republican rankings.



DEMOCRATIC RANKINGS

1. No One

Last Ranking: --
no one Help wanted. Perhaps the "winner" of the first debate will nudge above the rest.

2.(tie) Hillary Clinton
New York senator Last Ranking: 1
Hillary Clinton Has a solid lead in national polling ever meant so little, so early? We're not sure the Clinton camp sufficiently steeled itself for the inevitable bruise of Obama's ability to match her in fundraising. The Clinton machine was built by hard work, but also by contingency and circumstance: the magic of doing the right things at the right time. To win, Hillary has to sell herself as a doer (in contrast to Obama's "hoper") and a trailblazer(will she alienate men?). She must also figure out how to survive the early debates without the aura of invincibility that might have kept her rivals from shooting buckshot in her direction and the aura of celebrity that, just six months ago, would have guaranteed that every crowd her campaign built was large and inspired. Thegood news, though, is that somebody else now has to share the burden of expectations. Almanac Profile

2.(tie) Barack Obama
Illinois senator Last Ranking: 2
Barack Obama The Obama campaign has been slow, steady and methodical. At this moment, it doesn't matter that Obama lacks a health care plan, a comprehensive economic policy, any subtle foreign policy vision or even a concrete proposal to move the Middle East peace process forward. But the idea of Obama is worth, it's safe to say, about 20 points in the national polls, and that is not sufficient. Just like Clinton, Obama has earned the privilege to fight for the nomination. That meanshe must subject himself to the indignities of a presidential campaign. Does he have the plod? Almanac Profile

2.5. John Edwards
Former North Carolina senator Last Ranking: 3
John Edwards From the perspective of pure politics, the cancer announcement and its aftermath were handled adroitly. Edwards has had a good quarter, but he's still stuck between tiers, as our colleague Stu Rothenberg eloquently put it. We are impressed by Edwards' enduring lead in Iowa, where crowds have shown up to Clinton and Obama events, processed them and haven't changed their minds. Still, the Edwards folks have to fortify themselves for the inevitable Iowa falloff. Can they prevent the media from overreacting? Dick Gephardt couldn't survive once he lost his Iowa inevitability. Can Edwards? His final target is Clinton; his immediate enemy is Obama. As you watch him in the debates, keep that in mind.

3. Bill Richardson
New Mexico governor Last Ranking: 4
Bill Richardson Richardson's right: He's in a tier of his own. During the debates, he'll have the chance to step away from his resumé and into a role more suited for the particular dynamics of this race. No candidate is depending on the debates more than Richardson. Almanac Profile

4. Christopher Dodd
Connecticut senator Last Ranking: 5
Christopher Dodd It's true -- this ain't the time for on-the-job training -- but so long as voters buy the argument that Hillary Clinton is experienced, and so long as Bill Richardson stays in the race, Dodd will have to find some other niche to occupy. The second quarter will tell us whether he is destined to be a vanity candidate and drop out. Don't mean to be harsh, but them's the facts. Almanac Profile

5. Joseph Biden
Delaware senator Last Ranking: 6
Joe Biden No candidate works harder to frame the Iraq debate, to respond to the news of the day and to justify, in clear terms, why his mastery of the issues is superior. Those journalists who like hard workers -- David Broder, Lee Bandy -- love Biden. There was a time when Broder could create a candidacy, but that's not enough anymore. Almanac Profile

6. Dennis Kucinich
Ohio congressman Last Ranking: 7
Dennis Kucinich Remember in 2003 when Kucinich earned media coverage because opponents tried to remove him from debates and forums? This year, his footprint is so small that no one bothers. Almanac Profile

7. Mike Gravel
Former Alaska senator Last Ranking: 8
Mike Gravel When we did a Google News search to see what he's been up to, our first result was about a guy named Mike, and way down in the story, it mentioned "gravel."

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